The bigger the better when it comes to effective hit-outs
31st August 2011 Category: Statistical Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group
When analysing the effectiveness of a ruckman, it’s often the ‘hitouts’ column that draws the most attention. But just like with kicking and handballing, some players are more effective than others.
The table below focuses on statistical areas relating to the tap-work of ruckmen. Including: Hit-outs (HO), Hit-outs To Advantage (HTA) and Effective Hit-outs (%EffHO)
- Effective Hit-outs: refer to hit-outs that result in retaining team possession - and ultimately first disposal.
Notes:
- The table is sorted by percentage of Hit-outs to Advantage (%HTA).
- The rank on the left refers to Hit-outs per game (HO).
- When it comes to delivering effective hit-outs, it’s the heavy built ruckmen (typically stand and tap ruckmen) like Mark Jamar, Darren Jolly and Shane Mumford that deliver the best results.
- For the most part, ‘Hit-outs To Advantage’ and ‘Effective Hit-outs’ go hand in hand, but there are exceptions. Robbie Warnock is an example of a ruckman that gets flattered by the effectiveness of his midfielders. The numbers indicate that Warnock is good at tapping to a general area and gaining ground for his team, but not necessarily skilled at tapping directly to the advantage of a teammate.
- By these measures, Sam Jacobs is perhaps the most misleading ruckmen in the league. Jacobs is ranked 5th in the AFL for hit-outs per game, but ranks toward the bottom in hit-outs to advantage and effective hit-outs.
Hit-out statistics (per game) 2011:
| Rank (HO) | Player | GP | HO | HTA | %HTA | %EffHO |
| 6 | M Jamar (MELB) | 14 | 29.2 | 12.1 | 41.4 | 50.9 |
| 11 | D Jolly (COLL) | 12 | 24.8 | 9.8 | 39.5 | 54.0 |
| 3 | S Mumford (SYD) | 16 | 32.8 | 12.8 | 39.0 | 50.1 |
| 23 | T Bellchambers (ESS) | 13 | 20.5 | 7.7 | 37.6 | 46.6 |
| 8 | D Cox (WCE) | 21 | 28.0 | 10.5 | 37.5 | 44.8 |
| 2 | A Sandilands (FRE) | 12 | 34.3 | 11.7 | 34.1 | 48.1 |
| 25 | N Naitanui (WCE) | 19 | 18.1 | 6.1 | 33.7 | 44.5 |
| 18 | B Hudson (WB) | 16 | 22.5 | 7.4 | 32.9 | 48.3 |
| 28 | Z Smith (GCS) | 19 | 17.0 | 5.5 | 32.4 | 48.9 |
| 4 | M Leuenberger (BL) | 21 | 32.0 | 10.3 | 32.2 | 45.5 |
| 1 | T Goldstein (NMFC) | 20 | 36.2 | 11.3 | 31.2 | 48.5 |
| 7 | R Warnock (CARL) | 17 | 28.1 | 8.5 | 30.3 | 50.2 |
| 9 | B Ottens (GEEL) | 16 | 25.2 | 7.6 | 30.2 | 45.7 |
| 5 | S Jacobs (ADEL) | 18 | 31.9 | 9.6 | 30.1 | 44.8 |
| 19 | M Bailey (HAW) | 13 | 21.0 | 6.2 | 29.5 | 47.6 |
| 17 | B McEvoy (STK) | 20 | 22.6 | 6.6 | 29.2 | 44.2 |
| 22 | D Brogan (PORT) | 11 | 20.5 | 5.8 | 28.3 | 43.8 |
| 15 | C Wood (COLL) | 11 | 23.5 | 6.2 | 26.4 | 47.9 |
| 13 | A Graham (RICH) | 13 | 23.8 | 6.0 | 25.2 | 48.5 |
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1 comments
Surely efficiency is only half the equation, the other half being opportunities generated, just using the numbers above to create an "average effective hitouts" number (ie HO*%EffHO), gives the following list;
T Goldstein (NMFC)
A Sandilands (FRE)
S Mumford (SYD)
M Jamar (MELB)
M Leuenberger (BL)
S Jacobs (ADEL)
R Warnock (CARL)
D Jolly (COLL)
D Cox (WCE)
A Graham (RICH)
B Ottens (GEEL)
C Wood (COLL)
B Hudson (WB)
M Bailey (HAW)
B McEvoy (STK)
T Bellchambers (ESS)
D Brogan (PORT)
Z Smith (GCS)
N Naitanui (WCE)
after all, a 100% goal kicking accuracy isn't much use if you only get one shot per game, compared to an accuracy of 75% with four shots.