2011 Brownlow Medal betting guide

23rd September 2011 Category: Betting

Image: Slattery Media Group

Over the course of the season we’ve posted a number of Brownlow related articles (listed below). Some of which have been used to assist with this betting guide.

As we all know, Chris Judd is the clear favourite for Monday nights Brownlow, but it's worth remembering that Dane Swan was a short favourite last year. In the week leading up to the 2010 Brownlow, Swan was rated a 2-1 chance, with Judd listed at 15-1. The Brownlow is a betting market where favouritism doesn't always mean a whole lot.

This year though, the favourite is a proven poller - and despite the fact that Marc Murphy will steal votes from him - it's hard to mount a case for anyone beating Chris Judd.

In terms of betting, it's probably best to stay away from the outright win market - Judd's too short, and everyone else is too risky. Value, however, can be found in other areas.

Here are my tips for the Brownlow:

Pendlebury to place overall (2.50):
"Place bets" pay-out if the player finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd. We've got Pendlebury polling 20 votes across 10 games, which has him outside of the top 3, but he's proven in the past to poll well and could easily exceed expectation. If you're looking for a winner (other than Judd), Pendlebury is probably your best bet at $8.50. Collingwood lost only 2 games this season and Pendlebury played every game so he'll have plenty of opportunities to poll.

Likelihood: 50%

Brent Moloney (1.70) to beat Simon Black (2.11) Head to Head:
We've got Moloney polling 16 votes in total, well ahead of Black's expected tally of 6. Moloney had a great start to the season and had a couple of games where he's almost guaranteed best of ground honours.

Likelihood: 80%

Lance Franklin to win Hawthorn's count (7.00):
Mitchell is the outright favourite here at $1.07. Mitchell has won a series of media awards, but $1.07 is very short, considering the competition at Hawthorn. Franklin at $7.00 isn't without a chance.

Likelihood: 15%

Jude Bolton to be leading the count after Round 12 (126.00):
Admittedly there's very little chance that this will happen, but Bolton did have a solid start to the year. He's also got blonde hair... that rule still applies, yeah?

Likelihood: 1%

Daniel Wells (2.85) or Drew Petrie (21.00) to win North Melbourne's count:
Andrew Swallow is the favourite at $1.54, but Wells could trump him. Wells had at least 3 (maybe 4) best on ground performances this season. Drew Petrie is also a sneaky chance. You won't find too many other All Australian's with longer odds. North Melbourne's polling group is wide open. We've got Petrie 4th, but only 3 votes behind the leader. At 21-1 he's worth a look.

Likelihood: 50% for Wells, 8% for Petrie.

Dyson Heppell or Shane Savage to win the "Rising Stars" group:
The group includes: Luke Shuey (1.18), Dyson Heppell (9.00), Sam Reid (15.00), Shane Savage (15.00) and Daniel Menzel (16.00).
First year players often struggle to poll votes - even if they put in good performances. The theory is that if the umpires don't know who they are, they don't write down their name. Heppell won the Rising Star award on the back of great consistentcy, however he may struggle to poll, being that he played some of his best games in losses. Shane Savage had a less consistent year and played a limited number of games, but had a couple of games where he deserves to be in the votes. Shuey is a short priced favourite here, and while he had a great year, this group might not be so clear cut. If Shuey fails to poll, Savage and the rest of the field has a chance.

Likelihood: 20% chance someone other than Shuey will win this group.

Last one, if you've got a spare million lying around, put it on Gary Ablett to win the Gold Coast count. He's listed at $1.01, but I'm amazed that he's listed at all. There aren't too many easier ways to make $10,000.

Likelihood: 99.99%

All odds for this post have been provided by Centrebet, If you've got any Brownlow tips, let us know via Twitter (@PlayerRater) or in the comments section below.

View Comments or add your own »

Media push Goodes' Brownlow odds

21st September 2011 Category: Betting

Image: Slattery Media Group

"Goodes in Brownlow best form, stats show"

"Adam Goodes's late medal mail"

"Judd nervous as punters back Goodes"

"Brownlow in sight for Adam Goodes"

 

Despite the headlines, it’s unlikely Adam Goodes has done enough to win the Brownlow this year.

Goodes stands as the great hope for betting agencies, who will lose big if Chris Judd takes home his 3rd medal next week. 

Goodes’ plunge in Brownlow betting, has been media inspired. As if as a favour to the betting companies that stump them, AFL media agencies around the country have pushed the prospect of Goddes winning his third Brownlow. In a matter of weeks, Goodes went from 67-1 to 17-1 to outright second favourite at 5-1*.

The deception is grounded in fact. Goodes had a great end to the season, but betting companies know that the average punter doesn’t bet based on well grounded knowledge and analysis, they bet based on hype and popular opinion.

They also know that betting markets are just like stock markets, they can be manipulated by the media.

A full Brownlow betting guide to follow tomorrow.
*Centrebet odds

View Comments or add your own »

 
Close

Login







Not yet a member? Signup here