Player Rater

27th September 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

Footy fans have long suspected umpires of 'square ups.' For the uninitiated a 'square-up' is where an umpire makes an error in a game and in order to keep fans, coaches and players on-side, pays another free-kick soon after to the opposing team - as a way of squaring the ledger.

Last night felt like a square up. Dane Swan deserved to win the 2010 Brownlow, but was robbed by Chris Judd. The umpires balanced the books last night, awarding Dane Swan the 2011 Brownlow Medal.

In hindsight we should have seen it coming. Not because of the fickle nature of umpires, but because Collingwood dominated the home and away season. They won 20 or their 22 games and finished with a percentage of 167.7% - the best since World War II. That figure is even more remarkable considering it includes a dead-rubber drubbing from Geelong in the final round of the season.

When you dominate as many games as Collingwood did this year, you're always going to dominate the votes. What we maybe underestimated was the contribution of Swan and Pendlebury. Collingwood's midfield might be perceived to have a greater spread of responsibility than what it actually does.

In the first five rounds of the season Swan and Pendlebury collected 18 of the 25 votes on offer. Between them, they amassed 58 votes in total - the greatest total between two teammates in the history of the Brownlow. The previous best was 50.

The table below shows the round by round votes as predicted last week against the actual awarded votes.

Summarizing the predictions: Swan, Mitchell and Dal Santo outdid all expectations, Judd polled below expectations and rest of the field was about on par.

Predicted round by round votes (actual votes in red):