2011 AFL Grand Final - selecting the Norm Smith winner

29th September 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

Everyone knows which players are most likely to win the Norm Smith. That’s why they’re the favourites. This post is about finding the best player to bet on, balancing risk vs reward.

The easiest way to find the best selection with the best value, is by process of elimination.

Below is a list of every player selected for the Grand Final - including emergencies. The colour and symbol associated with each player below indicates the reason why they won't win the award. The winner of the Norm Smith will come from one of the remaining players.

Can't win Norm Smith

Won't win Norm Smith
* Chris Scott won't allow it.
^ Injury concerns or underdone.
+ Got more important things to worry about.
# There may be a point in the game when everyone thinks he can win it.
~ Less chance if it's wet.
¤ Might choke.
⇒ Could be the sub.

PENDLEBURY (COLL) 7.50
SELWOOD (GEE) 7.50
SWAN (COLL) 7.50
BARTEL (GEE) 10.00
KELLY (GEE) 10.00
THOMAS (COLL) 11.00
CHAPMAN (GEE) 15.00
* ¤ DAVIS (COLL) 15.00
OTTENS (GEE) 15.00
SHAW (COLL) 15.00
CLOKE (COLL) 17.00
BALL (COLL) 21.00
^ COREY (GEE) 21.00
^ JOHNSON (GEE) 21.00
# ~ KRAKOUER (COLL) 21.00
ENRIGHT (GEE) 26.00
⇒ DIDAK (COLL) 31.00
O'BRIEN (COLL) 31.00
SCARLETT (GEE) 31.00
SIDEBOTTOM (COLL) 31.00
~ ¤ PODSIADLY (GEE) 36.00
# WELLINGHAM (COLL) 36.00
^ JOLLY (COLL) 41.00
+ LING (GEE) 41.00
~ MACKIE (GEE) 41.00
# ¤ VARCOE (GEE) 41.00
BEAMS (COLL) 51.00
BLAIR (COLL) 51.00
CHRISTENSEN (GEE) 51.00
~ ¤ HAWKINS (GEE) 51.00
JOHNSON (COLL) 51.00
TAYLOR (GEE) 51.00
DAWES (COLL) 61.00
+ MAXWELL (COLL) 61.00
^ REID (COLL) 61.00
¤ STOKES (GEE) 61.00
# WOJCINSKI (GEE) 61.00
BROWN (COLL) 71.00
⇒ DUNCAN (GEE) 71.00
~ ⇒ BYRNES (GEE) 81.00
+ LONERGAN (GEE) 81.00
FASOLO (COLL) 101.00
GOLDSACK (COLL) 101.00
HUNT (GEE) 101.00
TARRANT (COLL) 101.00
TOOVEY (COLL) 101.00
WEST (GEE) 101.00
WOOD (COLL) 101.00
MILBURN (GEE) 126.00

Best of the outsiders:
  • Brad Ottens (GEEL): He's long been considered a big game player, and sometimes perception is more telling than reality. Don’t be surprised if Ottens get the nods - even if he isn’t best on ground.
  • Matthew Scarlett (GEEL): If the umpires were making the decision, he’d be no chance, but being that past players and journo’s vote on the award, he’s in with a shot.
  • Jimmy Bartel (GEEL): Not really an outsider, but of the players valued at $10 or over, he's the best bet, especially if it rains. Probably the best wet weather footballer in the league.
  • Heath Shaw (COLL) and Harry O’Brien (COLL): Collingwood are at their best when these two are playing well. With the attention on Leon Davis, Shaw and O'Brein could potentially go under the radar.
2011 Norm Smith Panel: Rodney Eade (chairman), Matt Granland (SEN), Garry Lyon (MMM), Bruce Matthews (Herald Sun), Matthew Richardson (3AW).

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