Player Rater

21st September 2011 Category: Analysis

Images: Slattery Media Group

How will your club fare at the Brownlow Monday night? We've converted the ratings of Player Rater users into Brownlow style 3,2,1 votes. Top rated = 3 votes // 2nd = 2 votes //  3rd = 1 vote.

The tables below includes the expected top 5 vote getters at each club for this years Brownlow.

Votes by Club:

20th September 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group, inset: The Tackle with Mark Robinson (Herald Sun)

In case you haven’t noticed, Mark Robinson’s All Australian team bares quite a resemblance to the official All Australian team named last night.

After hearing the announcement of the official team, I wanted to see how it compared to Robbo’s team. So I looked up both and flicked back and forth between the two. After a couple of flicks I didn’t know which one I was looking at.

Are the All Australian selection committee avid Herald Sun readers? Or did Robbo get an early scoop? Either way the similarities are clear.

I’m not saying that Robbo would need to consult anyone in order to come up with a team, but maybe he sounded-out a couple of the selectors before going to print?

Or maybe the selectors decided that whenever they couldn’t agree, they’d defer to Robbo (by way of deferring to his article from late August)?

It’s one thing to select the same players, but to select the same players in the same positions - in half of the available spots? That looks a little suspect.

Who decided that Adam Goodes should be selected in the right forward pocket? And Milne in the left? Or that Dane Swan should assume the position of right half forward?

In total, Robbo and the official All Australian selectors agreed on 15 of the starting 18 players. 11 of those 15 appear in the exact same position.

B: Grant Birchall (HAW), Matthew Scarlett (GEEL), Corey Enright (GEEL)

HB: Heath Scotland (CARL), Ben Reid (COLL), Leon Davis (COLL)

C: Dale Thomas (COLL), Sam Mitchell (HAW), Marc Murphy (CARL)

HF: Steve Johnson (GEEL), Travis Cloke (COLL), Dane Swan (COLL)

F: Stephen Milne (STK), Buddy Franklin (HAW), Adam Goodes (SYD)

Foll: Dean Cox (WCE), Scott Pendlebury (COLL), Chris Judd (CARL)

Int: Todd Goldstein (NMFC), Brett Deledio (RICH), Matthew Boyd (WB), Gary Ablett (GCS)

11th September 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

1. Marc Murphy (Carlton): Easily the most damaging player on the ground. Was the key to Carlton’s first half dominance, stepping up with Judd down early.

2. Heath Scotland (Carlton): Set the tone with his attack on the ball, winning a number of key contests in the first half. His composure across half back was important early.

3. Bret Thornton (Carlton): Took a number of strong contested marks, wasn’t shown enough respect by the Bombers. Will be interesting to see if he stays forward against the Eagles.

4. Eddie Betts (Carlton): Made a quiet start, but came to life in the second half. Finished with 4 goals.

5. Jeff Garlett (Carlton): Kicked 3 goals in the first half and exposed McVeigh on a number of occasions with his hard running back toward goal.

6. Robert Warnock (Carlton): Dominated Hille and Ryder in the ruck and held his own when dragged into the backline.

7. Andrew Walker (Carlton): Sparked the Blues early with two key goals in the first quarter. His goal kicking was impeccable.

8. Angus Monfries (Essendon): Seems to save his best for the big occasion, contributed all over the ground kicking 2 goals in the first half and taking a couple of strong contested marks in the back half. 

9. Bryce Gibbs (Carlton): So effective forward of centre, benefited from Carlton’s dominance at stoppages. His finishing was a real feature.

10. Heath Hocking (Essendon): Won his contest with Judd and held his own when dragged forward.

10th September 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

1. Joel Selwood (Geelong): Only 20 touches, but along with Kelly and Ottens, sparked Geelong's run in the second quarter. Overcame close attention at stoppages and a big hit from Jordan Lewis.

2. Brad Ottens (Geelong): Influenced the game early with some great tap-work and drifted forward with success. Best on ground in the first half. 

3. Lance Franklin (Hawthorn): Had the opportunities to kick a huge haul, but wasn’t in rhythm with his goal kicking. Dominated Lonergan one on one and almost sparked a comeback with a brilliant individual goal in the fourth quarter. Sad end to the night.

4. Jimmy Bartel (Geelong): A typical performance from Bartel, hard at the contest, clean by hand and foot and chipped in with a goal.

5. James Kelly (Geelong): Hugely influential at centre bounce stoppages. Clean and damaging through the middle.

6. Luke Hodge (Hawthorn): Threatened to take over the game early in the third with a short spell in the forward line. Hawthorn's best in and around the contest, but was reckless at times by foot.

7. Tom Hawkins (Geelong): Considering the moment, probably Hawkins best game for the club. Exposed Shoenmakers early and was one of the few Cats to start well. 

8. Josh Hunt (Geelong): Shut down Bruest and was damaging offensively, kicked a key goal in the second quarter.

9. Josh Gibson (Hawthorn): Seemed like the only Hawthorn defender that could win a one on one contest, Worked overtime in defense, covering Podsiadly and supporting his teammates.

10. James Podsiadly (Geelong): Was quiet early, but managed to influence the game with 3 goal and a number of contented marks.

8th September 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

According to the ratings of Player Rater users, Chris Judd is set to be the runaway 2011 Brownlow Medal winner.

Player Rater's Brownlow forecast has Judd winning easily, ahead of Marc Murphy, Matthew Boyd and Dane Swan.

Centrebet currently have Judd listed as a $1.63 chance to win his third medal, ahead of Scott Pendlebury ($7) and Adam Goodes ($8).

The leaderboard and game by game breakdown below have been compiled by converting the ratings of Player Rater users into Brownlow style 3,2,1 votes. Top rated = 3 votes // 2nd = 2 votes //  3rd = 1 vote 

Odds from Centrebet 

Round by round votes:

25th August 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

2004 was undoubtedly one of the worst seasons in Hawthorn history. The Hawks had a team that was expected to play finals, but instead slumped to a record of 4 wins and 18 losses. Coach, Peter Schwab was sacked mid-way through the season and club legend Shane Crawford stepped down as captain.

Alastair Clarkson was appointed as the new coach at the conclusion of the 2004 season.

In 2004, Hawthorn's forward line featured Nathan Thompson, Nick Holland, John Barker, Ben Dixon and Mark Williams. Thompson was traded at the end of the 2004 season and Holland, Barker and Dixon were all nearing the end of their careers.

Hawthorn conceded late in 2004 that the club was entering an era of rebuilding and redevelopment. Following the 2004 draft, Clarkson confirmed that Hawthorn had made the conscious decision to go tall, drafting Jarryd Roughead at number 2 and Lance Franklin at number 5 in the 2004 national draft. Clarkson said at the time:

"It was an enormous decision for our club to bypass some of the other talent in the draft, like the Tamblings and those sorts of kids.

"It was something where we went into the draft thinking 'if we can get these two boys (Roughead and Franklin), we'll go a long way towards making the spine of our football side very strong for some time'.

"It's easier to find midfielders than it is to find key position players."

Hawthorn's strategy was clear. Their forward line was renovated to make way for new talent. Thompson was traded in '04, Holland retired in '05, Barker and Dixon followed suit in '06 and '07 respectively.

Mark Williams held the line during this transitional period - kicking 123 goals between 2005 and 2006. But Clarkson conceded that Hawthorn's next premiership side couldn't be built around the under-sized sharp shooter.

Hawthorn needed a key forward, and Franklin was their man.

The table below shows the transition of responsibility at Hawthorn - from Williams who spearheaded the forward line in '05 to Franklin who led the Hawks to the premiership in '08.

Williams and Franklin Goals (average goals per game): 2005 - 2008

Williams only played 4 games in 2007 due to injury

The Eagles are in the middle of a similar transition with Mark LeCras and Josh Kennedy.

Throughout 2009 and 2010 the Eagles forward line was spearheaded by LeCras, who returned a similar tally to Williams - 121 goals in 2 seasons. But coaches with as much experience as John Worsfold know that premiership teams aren't built around small forwards. That's why when the Eagles conceded losing Chris Judd to Carlton, Worsfold demanded that the Blues youngster, Josh Kennedy be involved in the trade.

After developing Kennedy as a key forward over the past 3 years, the Eagles forward line has taken shape in 2011.

The table below details the transition between LeCras and Kennedy at West Coast. 3 years into the 4 year cycle, the transition at West Coast looks very similar to the transition at Hawthorn between 2005 and 2008.

LeCras and Kennedy Goals (average goals per game): 2009 - 2011

*Progress tally as at Round 22, 2011

10th August 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

Bookmaker, Sportsbet has decided - 4 rounds out from the end of the season - to pay out bets on Chris Judd for the 2011 Brownlow.

Based on the fact that Judd polled so well last season (in what most consider to be an inferior year), popular opinion suggests Judd will blitz the field this season, despite not leading any of the major media awards.

Judd’s odds of securing a third Brownlow have improved due to the suspension of a number of competing stars. Now it seems only a run-in with the tribunal can prevent him from winning the medal in 2011.

Judd's had an incredible run with the umpires in recent years; his shorts odds this season are heavily influenced by his polling history. But how has the competition faired in recent counts?

Going by polling results, Scott Pendlebury might be Judd’s stiffest competition. In 2009 and 2010, Pendlebury was the only player that averaged a higher number of votes-per-games-polled (VPGP) than Judd. Pendlebury in 09-10 averaged 2.4 VPGP, Judd in the same period averaged 2.35. In simple terms this means that when Pendlebury polls votes, he gets them in lots of 2’s and 3’s. In 2010 Pendlebury polled 21 votes in 8 games - 5 x 3 votes and 3 x 2 votes.

Sportsbet 2011 Brownlow Odds: Judd ($1.80), Pendlebury ($8.50), Murphy ($10.00), Dal Santo ($11.00), Swan ($12.00), Ablett ($18.00).

2010 Brownlow Voting:

2009 Brownlow Voting:

29th July 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

Now that Andrew Lovett is a free man, the debate has begun about whether he’s capable of returning to AFL. 

Already this week there’s been the suggestion that Lovett - had he not been sacked - could have won St Kilda the 2010 Premiership. 

And even after being out of the game for more than 18 months, some believe he could be the missing piece to the puzzle for a flag contender. 

25th July 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

Team performances are the result of collective individual performances. To get an indication of whether this holds true on Player Rater, we’ve calculated the ratings of each player at each club to find the average player rating for each team - then compared those averages with the actual performance of each team this season.

For example; to find the average player rating for Collingwood we've calculated the ratings of Dane Swan (7.72), Scott Pendlebury (7.72), Dale Thomas (7.43) and the other 28 players that have played for the Pies in 2011 to find their average player rating.

Notes:

• Collingwood has used fewer players than any other team this season (31).
• In 2011 the top 4 teams (by player ratings) have used an average of 33.25 players throughout the season. The rest of the competition has used an average of 36.38.
• Carlton has used more players in 2011 than any other top 8 team.
• When comparing player rating rankings with actual league rankings, Carlton is the one of the biggest movers. Considering that Carlton has 2 of the top 3 rated players in the league, the discrepancy is likely a reflection of a gap in quality at the bottom of their playing list. Kane Lucas, Simon White and Andrew Collins all currently have an average rating of less than 5.
• Despite having one of the biggest injury lists in the league, Hawthorn has only used 34 players this season.

18th July 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

Three years ago, Richmond president Gary March announced the mid-season sacking of then Football Director, Greg Miller. Miller had been with the club for six years.

Gary March said at the time:

"Greg joined Richmond at a difficult time in our history. He joined when we were a highly unprofitable club.” 

It was well documented at the time that the club, in order to make ends meet, removed certain roles from within the football operations department. Key members of management were given wider responsibility. Miller took on the responsibility of player recruitment, where typically the role would fall at the feet of a recruitment officer that operated within the football department underneath the Football Director. 

"Greg came to our organisation at a time when he filled many roles and over the last couple of years that role has changed significantly and the board felt that with the changing nature of football and the resurgence of our club, that we required a different skill set going forward. 

"Football is changing dramatically. We've improved our resources in that (football operations) area, we've added to it significantly and the club sought to have a different skill set going forward." said March. 

Richmond are now paying for short cuts taken in the early years of Miller's tenure. Players drafted to the club 7, 8, 9 years ago, now in their mid twenty's, were expected to be the backbone of the team in 2011. In Richmond's case most of the players drafted in the early rounds of the national draft between 2002 and 2005 are no longer with the club. In some cases, the players drafted are out of professional football all together.

It's worth noting that the club had more success from 2006 to 2007, drafting Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin and Alex Rance.