Player Rater

26th September 2011 Category: Analysis

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When a player gets suspended early in the AFL season (and becomes ineligible for the Brownlow) does it affect an umpires voting for the remainder of the season?

Take for example, Round 21, Hawthorn v Port Adelaide. Sam Mitchell has 33 touches and kicks 2 goals - a best on ground performance by most people’s thinking. But when the umpires come to filling in their voting card, do they look at the fact that Mitchell is ineligible and therefore try to find other players to give the votes to?

After what happened to Corey McKernan and Chris Grant in ‘96 and ‘97, you could forgive them for doing so. No one wants to see an ineligible winner. Not least the umpires, because if we get another ineligible winner, they’ll be renewed calls to allow suspended players to be eligible. Or worse still, increased pressure to take the voting away from the umpires. Either way, the umpires lose control.

Mitchell has taken out a number of the major media awards this season, including the Herald Sun Player of the Year, the ABC Footballer of the Year and the Lou Richards Medal. If Mitchell were eligible he’d be competing with Chris Judd for Brownlow favoritism.

25th September 2011 Category: Round in review

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1. Lewis, J (HAW) 8.71
2. Swan, D (COLL) 8.63 
3. Mitchell, S (HAW) 8.14 
4. Cloke, T (COLL) 7.89
5. Burgoyne, S (HAW) 7.88

1. Kelly, J (GEEL) 8.25
2. Selwood, J (GEEL) 8.13
3. Scarlett, M (GEEL) 7.89
4. Naitanui, N (WCE) 7.80
5. Mackie, A (GELL) 7.70

24th September 2011 Category: General

Channel 7’s broadcast of Friday night's Collingwood vs Hawthorn Preliminary Final has angered fans around the country. Seven’s directors continuously showed ground level close-ups - in what one can only imagine was an attempt to bring the audience closer to the action. In reality it angered the audience. With every prolonged close-up, Seven’s million plus viewers grew increasing frustrated.

A sample of the reaction via Twitter:

erin_byrnes: This cracking footy match is being ruined by channel 7's atrocious camera work

EddieVukovic: Has Channel 7 strapped the camera to a seagull?

hdecure: Channel 7 your camera angles suck.

samdrummond: Camera angles are ruining a great game. We have to put up with this for another 5 years, Channel 7?!

scotthagart: Cracking game of footy, channel 7's coverage terrible!.

24th September 2011 Category: Round in review

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1. Jordan Lewis (Hawthorn): A great finals performance, attacked every contest like it was his last. There were players with more possessions, but no one influenced the game more than Lewis.

2. Dane Swan (Collingwood): Top possession winner on the ground and a great four quarter performance. Showed great strength and speed on a number of occasions and kicked a crucial goal in the last quarter.

3. Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn): Faded a little in the second half, but was easily best on ground in the first half. 31 touches at over 80% efficiency.

4. Shaun Burgoyne (Hawthorn): As Tom Harley said in the commentary, there were times when Burgoyne looked like his old explosive self. Won a number of key contests early in the game and repeatedly put his body on the line.

5. Travis Cloke (Collingwood): In many ways Cloke was the difference between the two teams. Allowed Collingwood to go long to contests when they struggled to find time and space early in the game. Took a great mark on half forward in the third quarter.

6. Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood): Quiet early, had only 2 touches in the first 10 minutes, but came into the game in the second quarter. Finished as the equal top possesion getter, but his efficiency was slightly down.

7. Lance Franklin (Hawthorn): Managed to influence the game, despite little opportunity and poor delivery. His goal in the last quarter deserved to be the game winner.

8. Cyril Rioli (Hawthorn): Not a high volume game, but his work rate was extraordinary. Seemed like the one Hawthorn player that could find time on half forward. Finished with 8 inside 50's.

9. Grant Birchall (Hawthorn): Stood up one on one and imposed himself on the contest, played like a player worthy of All Australian selection.

10. Luke Ball (Collingwood): An unlikely hero. Had a solid game without being spectacular, but found himself in the right place at the right time.

23rd September 2011 Category: Betting

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Over the course of the season we’ve posted a number of Brownlow related articles (listed below). Some of which have been used to assist with this betting guide.

• 2011 Brownlow count so far - Judd set to win a third? (21.07.11) End of Round 17
• 2011 Brownlow according to Player Rater - Club by Club (22.07.11) End of Round 17
• 2011 Brownlow - can anyone beat Judd? (10.08.11) End of Round 20 
• Brownlow Breakdown - Judd to runaway with a third? (08.09.11) End of the H&A season 
• Club by club guide to the 2011 Brownlow (21.09.11) End of the H&A season
• Media push Goodes' Brownlow odds (21.09.11) End of the H&A season
  

As we all know, Chris Judd is the clear favourite for Monday nights Brownlow, but it's worth remembering that Dane Swan was a short favourite last year. In the week leading up to the 2010 Brownlow, Swan was rated a 2-1 chance, with Judd listed at 15-1. The Brownlow is a betting market where favouritism doesn't always mean a whole lot.

This year though, the favourite is a proven poller - and despite the fact that Marc Murphy will steal votes from him - it's hard to mount a case for anyone beating Chris Judd.

In terms of betting, it's probably best to stay away from the outright win market - Judd's too short, and everyone else is too risky. Value, however, can be found in other areas.

Here are my tips for the Brownlow:

Likelihood: 50%

Likelihood: 80%

Likelihood: 15%

Likelihood: 1%

Likelihood: 50% for Wells, 8% for Petrie.

Likelihood: 20% chance someone other than Shuey will win this group.

Likelihood: 99.99%

21st September 2011 Category: Analysis

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How will your club fare at the Brownlow Monday night? We've converted the ratings of Player Rater users into Brownlow style 3,2,1 votes. Top rated = 3 votes // 2nd = 2 votes //  3rd = 1 vote.

The tables below includes the expected top 5 vote getters at each club for this years Brownlow.

Votes by Club:

21st September 2011 Category: Betting

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"Goodes in Brownlow best form, stats show"

"Adam Goodes's late medal mail"

"Judd nervous as punters back Goodes"

"Brownlow in sight for Adam Goodes"

Despite the headlines, it’s unlikely Adam Goodes has done enough to win the Brownlow this year.

Goodes stands as the great hope for betting agencies, who will lose big if Chris Judd takes home his 3rd medal next week. 

Goodes’ plunge in Brownlow betting, has been media inspired. As if as a favour to the betting companies that stump them, AFL media agencies around the country have pushed the prospect of Goddes winning his third Brownlow. In a matter of weeks, Goodes went from 67-1 to 17-1 to outright second favourite at 5-1*.

The deception is grounded in fact. Goodes had a great end to the season, but betting companies know that the average punter doesn’t bet based on well grounded knowledge and analysis, they bet based on hype and popular opinion.

They also know that betting markets are just like stock markets, they can be manipulated by the media.

20th September 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group, inset: The Tackle with Mark Robinson (Herald Sun)

In case you haven’t noticed, Mark Robinson’s All Australian team bares quite a resemblance to the official All Australian team named last night.

After hearing the announcement of the official team, I wanted to see how it compared to Robbo’s team. So I looked up both and flicked back and forth between the two. After a couple of flicks I didn’t know which one I was looking at.

Are the All Australian selection committee avid Herald Sun readers? Or did Robbo get an early scoop? Either way the similarities are clear.

I’m not saying that Robbo would need to consult anyone in order to come up with a team, but maybe he sounded-out a couple of the selectors before going to print?

Or maybe the selectors decided that whenever they couldn’t agree, they’d defer to Robbo (by way of deferring to his article from late August)?

It’s one thing to select the same players, but to select the same players in the same positions - in half of the available spots? That looks a little suspect.

Who decided that Adam Goodes should be selected in the right forward pocket? And Milne in the left? Or that Dane Swan should assume the position of right half forward?

In total, Robbo and the official All Australian selectors agreed on 15 of the starting 18 players. 11 of those 15 appear in the exact same position.

B: Grant Birchall (HAW), Matthew Scarlett (GEEL), Corey Enright (GEEL)

HB: Heath Scotland (CARL), Ben Reid (COLL), Leon Davis (COLL)

C: Dale Thomas (COLL), Sam Mitchell (HAW), Marc Murphy (CARL)

HF: Steve Johnson (GEEL), Travis Cloke (COLL), Dane Swan (COLL)

F: Stephen Milne (STK), Buddy Franklin (HAW), Adam Goodes (SYD)

Foll: Dean Cox (WCE), Scott Pendlebury (COLL), Chris Judd (CARL)

Int: Todd Goldstein (NMFC), Brett Deledio (RICH), Matthew Boyd (WB), Gary Ablett (GCS)

19th September 2011 Category: Round in review

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1.  Kennedy, J (SYD) 8.57
2. Gibson, J (HAW) 8.14 
3. Goodes, A (SYD) 7.86 
4. Puopolo, P (HAW) 7.83
5. Hodge, L (HAW) 7.80

1. Kerr, D (WCE) 8.83
2. Murphy, M (CARL) 8.17
3. Cox, D (WCE) 7.83
4. Selwood, S (WCE) 7.80
5. Robinson, M (CARL) 7.71

16th September 2011 Category: Feature

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Of all the individual awards handed out at the conclusion of the season, Player Rater is best placed to predict the outcome of the best and fairest, because like the B&F format, the Player Rater system rewards consistency across a season. 

Below are the predicted standings for each clubs Best and Fairest award.

Players that played less than 15 games, have been excluded. They include: Daniel Kerr, Heath Shaw, David Mundy and Barry Hall.

Notes:

• Carlton are the only team that had all of their top 5 rated players play 22 games this season. Richmond were the next best.
• Nick Dal Santo is a clear favourite for the St Kilda B&F. Riewoldt will likely finish outside the top 5.
• Port Adelaide was the only team without a player rated over 7 for the season.
• 3 of Fremantle’s top 5 rated players played less than 14 games (Barlow, Mundy and Sandilands).
• The top 5 players for both Collingwood and Geelong finished in the top 30 overall.
• Gary Ablett and Trent Cotchin have already been awarded their respective clubs B&F (Cotchin finished 2nd to Martin by .01 on Player Rater).

Top 5 rated players from each club in 2011: