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12th October 2011 Category: Analysis
Images: Slattery Media Group
So often the players discussed during trade week are players that have no real value to the clubs they come from. On occasion, though, there are players on offer that can make a difference to clubs they join.
10th October 2011 Category: Analysis
Image: Slattery Media Group
ADELAIDE
All the attention surrounds Kurt Tippett. It’s been reported that he’s seeking a move back to Queensland to either the Suns or the Lions. Both clubs would have the pieces to get a deal done, but hard to imagine that Victorian clubs wont enquire as well. Would be a great fit for Carlton, Melbourne and the Bulldogs. Tippett is signed for one more year. The Crows will either look to move him now or give new coach, Brenton Sanderson a chance to get him back on-side.
Ivan Maric is reportedly a certainty to go to Richmond, but it’s hard to see this as anything more than a last resort for the Tigers. Maric has struggled with continual injury problems since coming into the league and wouldn’t necessarily walk in ahead of Angus Graham and Tyrone Vickery.
The Crows have already lost Phil Davis and looked likely to lose Vince and/or Taylor before they both re-signed.
Second year forward Jack Gunston is thought to be on his way to Hawthorn. The Hawks have a number of fringe players that could be included in a deal, but they don’t necessarily have to trade as he’s out of contract. Adelaide have conceded that he’s going, but said they’ll listen to offers from all clubs. Gunston is in a similar position to Luke Ball last year, Adelaide will be hoping they can find deal instead of allowing him through to the pre-season draft.
Tony Armstrong has requested a trade to Sydney. The Swans already have a couple of similar players in Lewis Jetta and Gary Rohan. They might look to offload Mark Seaby to get a deal.
BRISBANE
The Lions have all but conceded to losing Mitch Clark, who is expected to move to Fremantle.
The only other name to be connected to Brisbane so far is ex-Bulldog Ben Hudson, who is expected to sign a short term deal to play with the Lions in 2012. Hudson is originally from Brisbane and has moved home after retiring earlier this year.
Michael Voss has shown over the past couple of years that he’s a keen trader, so Brisbane could yet be key player in tradeweek.
CARLTON
Carlton are a club that loom as a big player in trade week. The Blues have been very public about their quest for a premiership, and the feeling seems to be that their window is now open.
The Blues need a key forward desperately and that will likely be where their attention is focused throughout trade week. Kurt Tippett wants a move back to Queensland, but the Blues could yet make a play for him.
Carlton were also said to be interested in John Butcher, but he's since resigned so they'll have to redirect their offers elsewhere.
COLLINGWOOD
Always active during tradeweek, the Pies might look to move some minor pieces during trade week.
Clubs tend to pay over the odds for players from good systems, Alan Toovey and Tyson Goldsack could be among the names discussed. Fremantle has been mentioned as a potential suitor for Toovey, who is originally from WA.
Andrew Krakouer’s agent has said over the weekend that he’s client will be looking to re-negotiate his contract. Krakouer was thrown a lifeline by Collingwood last season, and signed to a performance based contract. Krakouer is entitled to be earning more, but Collingwood won’t be impressed with the way his agent Peter Jess has gone about negotiations. The Pies will be in no hurry to up his deal, and if the two parties can’t come to agreement, Krakouer’s name could be raised in trade negotiations.
ESSENDON
James Hird has said publicly that Essendon won’t be big player in trade week. The Bombers do, however, have players that are expected to draw interest.
First round draft pick, Scott Gumbleton missed all of 2011 due to injury, but after showing glimpses in 2010 clubs may be prepared to take a punt on the young tall.
Tom Bellchambers is the other player that will generate interest. Essendon have a decision to make in regard to ruck stocks. Hille, Ryder and Bellchambers will all expect playing time in 2012, and as things stand Bellchambers is probably third in line. Essendon will do everything they can though to ensure that he stays.
If it was up to the fans, Brent Stanton would be on the block. The common consensus is, though, that he’s rated internally, so even if they were prepared to move him, you get the impression that Essendon would want the world.
FREMANTLE
Farren Ray and Zac Dawson are both out of contract and both are thought to be on Ross Lyon’s radar. This seems plausible for a number of reasons. Lyon loves to recycle, there’s a prior connection and they’re both unlikely to draw interest from elsewhere.
Early in the season Mitch Clark was thought to be a GWS target, but when Clark wasn’t named with the rest of the Giants signings, the attention turned to Fremantle. Ross Lyon reportedly tried to sign Clark at St Kilda, so his appointment shouldn’t change the Dockers position. The first round pick acquired from GWS for Rhys Palmer could move in this deal.
GEELONG
Emerging backman, Tom Gillies is one of the few Cats to have his name bought up in trade talks. Not much has been seen of Gillies since he was drafted in 2008, but he’s rated highly by a number of clubs. Gillies seems to be in a similar position to ex-cat Shane Mumford, being that he may seek a move in order to find more playing time. The Cats will be conscious of their aging list and with a number of veterans retiring this year, should be able to match offers from other clubs.
Mark Blake’s stock has plummeted in the past 12 months and if the Cats get any reasonable deals, he’s likely to move.
GOLD COAST
The Suns activity in tradeweek could be key to many of the proposed deals this week. Gold Coast have flexibility with the salary cap and have been mentioned as a possible destination for both Kurt Tippett and Brendon Goddard.
Gold Coast are also in the pole position to secure young prospect Jaeger O'Meara, with the Suns expected to offer up two first round picks.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
In many respects, GWS hold more assets than any other team in tradeweek. They have 9 of the first 15 picks in the national draft and hold the key to 17-year-old Jaeger O'Meara.
GWS have already shown in their player signings that if they’re going to acquire assets, they want young assets. Scully, Davis, Ward are have a lot of development in them, so if GWS deal for a player with their picks it’s unlikely they’ll target the likes of Brendon Goddard or another veteran star.
Kurt Tippett and Mitch Clark could still be on their radar.
HAWTHORN
Most of Hawthorn’s attention surrounds Adelaide forward Jack Gunston. A number of Hawthron's fringe players that have been mentioned in trade talks, including Clinton Young and Xavier Ellis.
Young forward, Jordan Lisle is also expected to generate interest. Lisle showed promise in a number of games this season, but struggled to hold down a spot. With Hawthorn’s injury concerns this year, Lisle probably would have expected more opportunities. If a club can offer regular first team football, a move might be possible.
MELBOURNE
The Dees did a good job of signing all (BIG asterisk) their wanted players at the end of the season. Cale Morton was talked about all year, but re-signed at the end of the season, along with Sylvia and Trengove.
Matthew Bate had limited opportunity in 2011 and could generate some interest, he’s the kind of player that Sydney would appreciate; slow, disciplined and an awkward kicking style.
Austin Wonaeamirri’s name has also been mentioned, but it’s unlikely Melbourne will deal him considering his off-field problems and he’s unlikely to draw interest for the same reason.
Matthew Warnock is almost guaranteed to move, after he requested a trade less than 24 hours after Melbourne’s final game of the season. Warnock can cover a key post at full back, and may be of interest to GWS, who have shown a desire to sign veteran key position players. Warnock’s agent has confirmed that Warnock wants a move interstate. It’s possible that Warnock will form part of Melbourne's offer for GWS youngster Jaeger O'Meara.
NORTH MELBOURNE
North say Hamish McIntosh is staying, but when Laidley says he’s gone, you’ve got to think he’s going. Brad Scott’s sharp enough to know that when you concede to trading someone, you’re far less likely to get full value. McIntosh is surely still on Richmond’s radar. A deal involving Daniel Connors could work for both parties. North, however, dealt David Hale last year and he’s thrived at Hawthorn. They might think twice about dealing another proven ruckman.
Matt Campbell is reportedly wanted by Hawthorn, but after the failure of Rhan Hopper and the emergence of Bruest it's hard to see this happening. Hawks won’t give up much if this does go through.
PORT ADELAIDE
Danyle Pearce will draw interest, but Power would be offloading him at his lowest point. Unless they find a clubs prepared to pay over the odds, he should stay.
Brad Ebert wants to return home to Adelaide. West Coast will listen to offers from both the Crows and the Power.
RICHMOND
The Tigers have a number of players that could be moved, and would draw interest. Matt White, Mitch Morton, Ben Nason and Dan Connors have all been mentioned.
The Tigers were active last year and have already signaled their intent to get Crows big man Ivan Maric.
ST KILDA
Michael Nettlefold has claimed that none of the Saints stars will move, but he also claimed that he was all over the Ross Lyon situation, so don’t take that as gospel.
Of all the Saints stars, Brendon Goddard seems the one most willing to turn his back on the club. There was talk during the year (and by talk I mean ‘pub-talk’) that he’s not well liked within the playing group. Carlton will be an active player during trade week and will definitely make enquires. He’s far from a perfect fit at the Blues, and may be past his best so both parties might not see eye to eye.
When at Hawthorn, Chris Pelchen made a couple of brilliant moves with players that were thought at the time to be “elite.” In the early 2000’s, the Hawks got first round picks for Jonathan Hay, Nathan Thompson and Trent Croad. Pelchen might look to do something similar with Goddard. A deal to the Suns for two first round picks would make sense.
Farren Ray and Zac Dawson have also been linked with moves away (see Fremantle).
SYDNEY
One of the issue’s Sydney have is that the players they acquire are often limited to their system, and represent greater value at the Swans than at other clubs. Seaby and Bevan have been mentioned but are unlikely to draw a great deal of interest.
Trade week will be a good indication of whether Longmire plans to implement any strategy changes at the Swans. Moves for players like Armstrong and Pearce will be on the cards if Longmire wants to balance out the playing list with more speed and outside running.
WEST COAST
The Eagles look set to stick with what they’ve got. West coast are one of the few clubs that have a settled spine, with the likes of Josh Kennedy, Eric McKenzie and Darren Glass. The Eagles may try to lure another midfielder, as backup for veterans Daniel Kerr and Andrew Embley. The Eagles also have to cover for the expected loss of Brad Ebert.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs have a number of assets that will generate interest throughout tradeweek.
The Bulldogs activity will depend on the attitude of Brendan McCartney. Will he give Brian Lake a chance to revive his career at the club or will he look for a deal?
Jarrad Grant is another player that could be of interest to rival clubs. Grant, who has shown glimpses of promise, but could benefit from a change of environment. The Bulldogs would have expected Grant to be further on in his development at this point in his career. Again any decision of Grant’s future might come down McCartney’s list assessment.
Lindsay Gilbee’s name has also been raised, but hard to see the Bulldogs moving him. Like many of the Bulldogs players, Gilbee’s stock is at a career low so it wouldn’t be in the Bulldogs interests to deal at this time.
4th October 2011 Category: Analysis
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- Sam Mitchell: Not only is he top 50, he’s top 10 now. Shocking omission.
- Scott Thompson: If Boyd is 28, Thompson’s got to be around the same mark.
- Harry Taylor: Glaring omission, not just based on this season. All Australian in 2010.
- Nathan Fyfe: Came from nowhere, now one of Freo’s most important players.
- Matt Priddis: Been around the mark for some years, one of the major reasons for West Coast’s revival.
- Travis Cloke: Number one contested mark in the competition. Might take Nick Riewoldt’s spot in the top 10.
- Daniel Kerr: Hampered by injury last season. In terms of “if they played every week players” he’s top of the pile. Might make the list on the back of his finals performance.
- Luke Ball: An incredibly consistent year, and a great finals series. 4 Grand Finals in a row has to say something.
- Brent Moloney: Maybe didn’t justify selection at the start of season, but probably makes the list now.
- Dustin Martin/Trent Cotchin: Both had great seasons, might only be room for one of them.
- Kade Simpson/Heath Scotland: Someone outside of Judd and Murphy will get recognised. Probably out of these two.
- Josh Gibson/Grant Birchall: Like with Carlton, Hawthorn’s improvement should be recognised. The backline held up against adversity this season.
2nd October 2011 Category: Analysis
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Norm Smith winner, Jimmy Bartel was the top rated player on Player Rater for the 2011 Grand Final. Tom Hawkins, Joel Selwood and James Kelly rounded out the top four. Key defender Tom Lonergan received his best rating for the season (8.09) for his defensive work on Chris Dawes and Travis Cloke. Scott Pendlebury and Luke Ball were the best rated Collingwood players. Jarryd Blair and Chris Dawes were the flops of the Grand Final, ranked 43 and 44 respectively.
1. Jimmy Bartel (Geelong) 8.67
2. Tom Hawkins (Geelong) 8.25
3. Joel Selwood (Geelong) 8.20
4. James Kelly (Geelong) 8.17
5. Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) 8.11
6. Tom Lonergan (Geelong) 8.09
7. Luke Ball (Collingwood) 7.91
8. Steve Johnson (Geelong) 7.83
9. Andrew Mackie (Geelong) 7.75
10. Travis Varcoe (Geelong) 7.73
11. Cameron Ling (Geelong) 7.63
12. Dale Thomas (Collingwood) 7.25
13. Matthew Scarlett (Geelong) 7.22
14. Joel Corey (Geelong) 7.18
15. Heath Shaw (Collingwood) 7.13
16. Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood) 7.11
17. Allen Christensen (Geelong) 7.10
18. Chris Tarrant (Collingwood) 7.10
19. Corey Enright (Geelong) 7.09
20. Travis Cloke (Collingwood) 7.09
21. Josh Hunt (Geelong) 6.91
22. Dane Swan (Collingwood) 6.91
23. Andrew Krakouer (Collingwood) 6.89
24. Mathew Stokes (Geelong) 6.83
25. Ben Johnson (Collingwood) 6.82
26. Harry O'Brien (Collingwood) 6.78
27. Paul Chapman (Geelong) 6.64
28. Brad Ottens (Geelong) 6.33
29. Mitchell Duncan (Geelong) 6.33
30. Harry Taylor (Geelong) 6.27
31. David Wojcinski (Geelong) 6.18
32. Leigh Brown (Collingwood) 6.18
33. Leon Davis (Collingwood) 6.13
34. Nick Maxwell (Collingwood) 6.13
35. Sharrod Wellingham (Collingwood) 6.11
36. Darren Jolly (Collingwood) 6.10
37. Alan Toovey (Collingwood) 5.90
38. Ben Reid (Collingwood) 5.90
39. Trent West (Geelong) 5.89
40. Alex Fasolo (Collingwood) 5.86
41. James Podsiadly (Geelong) 5.80
42. Alan Didak (Collingwood) 5.14
43. Jarryd Blair (Collingwood) 5.13
44. Chris Dawes (Collingwood) 4.82
1st October 2011 Category: Analysis
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If we didn’t know before Brownlow night, we know now… Collingwood are reliant on their two marquee midfielders. But if you can only tag one of them, who should it be?
Most teams won’t commit to playing more than one negating midfielder, and assuming that the Cats are no different, Chris Scott has to decide which one of the two he targets.
2011 stats comparison:
| Disp. | Kicks | H'balls | Marks | Clear. | I50's | Goals | SA | %Eff Disp. | |
| Swan | 32.7 | 20.3 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 70.1 |
| Pendlebury | 30.0 | 15.6 | 14.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 76.5 |
Geelong's best stopper is Cameron Ling. Pendlebury's the better match up for Ling. They're both about the same size and Pendlebury's unlikely to break Ling with pace. Ling: 189cm & 92kg - Pendlebury: 190cm & 88kg - Swan: 185cm & 85kg.
Pendlebury plays more as a traditional ruck rover, positioning himself next to the ruckman at stoppages. Swan often starts off the pack at stoppages so he can hit the contest on the move. Ling is better suited to a standing physical contest at the stoppages, where he can use his weight and strength.
The perception is that Pendlebury's the more damaging player of the two, but the numbers show Swan impacts the scoreboard more than Pendlebury. Swan contributes more goals, more inside 50's and more score assists.
30th September 2011 Category: Analysis
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Below are the pre-game Grand Final player rankings, based on ratings received during the season and throughout the finals. Collingwood occupy the top 2 spots, but both teams have 5 players in the top 10.
29th September 2011 Category: Analysis
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Everyone knows which players are most likely to win the Norm Smith. That’s why they’re the favourites. This post is about finding the best player to bet on, balancing risk vs reward.
The easiest way to find the best selection with the best value, is by process of elimination.
- Brad Ottens (GEEL): He's long been considered a big game player, and sometimes perception is more telling than reality. Don’t be surprised if Ottens get the nods - even if he isn’t best on ground.
- Matthew Scarlett (GEEL): If the umpires were making the decision, he’d be no chance, but being that past players and journo’s vote on the award, he’s in with a shot.
- Jimmy Bartel (GEEL): Not really an outsider, but of the players valued at $10 or over, he's the best bet, especially if it rains. Probably the best wet weather footballer in the league.
- Heath Shaw (COLL) and Harry O’Brien (COLL): Collingwood are at their best when these two are playing well. With the attention on Leon Davis, Shaw and O'Brein could potentially go under the radar.
29th September 2011 Category: Analysis
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If finals football separates the men from the boys, Jordan Lewis symbolizes the former.
Lewis has never been considered a top 20 or even top 50 player in the league, but if you were selecting the ultimate finals team in 2011, he’d be one of the first names on the sheet. Lewis is effectively a midfielder in a key position body. Dermott Brereton, who played most of his career as a centre half forward, said recently that he and Lewis were almost physically identical in terms of their playing height and weight. Couple that frame with unflappable courage and you have the ultimate finals football competitor.
In sports like Basketball and Soccer, the measure of a players greatness is often defined by a players ability to execute the technical side of the game on the biggest stage. In AFL that step up has more to do with increased physical intensity. If AFL players are judged by their ability to make that step, Jordan Lewis is at the very top.
See below Lewis’ performance against Collingwood in last week’s Preliminary Final.
27th September 2011 Category: Analysis
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Footy fans have long suspected umpires of 'square ups.' For the uninitiated a 'square-up' is where an umpire makes an error in a game and in order to keep fans, coaches and players on-side, pays another free-kick soon after to the opposing team - as a way of squaring the ledger.
Last night felt like a square up. Dane Swan deserved to win the 2010 Brownlow, but was robbed by Chris Judd.
In hindsight we should have seen it coming. Not because of the fickle nature of umpires, but because Collingwood dominated the home and away season. They won 20 or their 22 games and finished with a percentage of 167.7% - the best since World War II. That figure is even more remarkable considering it includes a dead-rubber drubbing from Geelong in the final round of the season.
When you dominate as many games as Collingwood did this year, you're always going to dominate the votes. What we maybe underestimated was the contribution of Swan and Pendlebury. Collingwood's midfield might be perceived to have a greater spread of responsibility than what it actually does.
In the first five rounds of the season Swan and Pendlebury collected 18 of the 25 votes on offer.
The table below shows the round by round votes as predicted last week against the actual awarded votes.
Summarizing the predictions: Swan, Mitchell and Dal Santo outdid all expectations, Judd polled below expectations and rest of the field was about on par.
Predicted round by round votes (actual votes in red):
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | T | |
| Judd, C | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 31 | ||||||||||||
| Judd, C | - | - | 1 | 2 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | ||||||||||
| Swan, D | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 | |||||||||||||||
| Swan, D | 2 | 3 | 3 | - | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 34 | |||||||||
| Ablett, G | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 21 | |||||||||||||
| Ablett, G | - | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 23 | ||||||||||||
| Goodes, A | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 | ||||||||||||||||
| Goodes, A | - | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | |||||||||||||||
| Pendlebury, S | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | ||||||||||||||
| Pendlebury, S | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - | - | - | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 24 | ||||||||||
| Mitchell, S* | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 | |||||||||||||
| Mitchell, S* | - | 1 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 30 |
27th September 2011 Category: General
